TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers67c3,211$2,155 inWon+$1,055.5110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs33c2,968$976 inLost-$975.6812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs14c247$34 inLost-$34.458,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers24c120$29 inWon+$91.28,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e00…ba80backed Chicago Cubs76c120$91 inLost-$91.26947.8%33 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Chicago Cubs44c113.52$50 inLost-$49.9533934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers56c99.82$56 inWon+$43.928,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8609…a968backed Milwaukee Brewers60c92.81$56 inWon+$37.121662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Chicago Cubs75c83.71$63 inLost-$62.7837357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers25c70$18 inWon+$52.568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago Cubs33c54.8$18 inLost-$17.841,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers63c40$25 inWon+$14.95,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Chicago Cubs32c31.91$10 inLost-$10.2910539%41 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Milwaukee Brewers78c30.58$24 inWon+$6.8479555.6%442 W · 353 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.