MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5631b05739f0d9845abb1b51a4444344533af7beb7d8092229a884a84b48aea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 10,339$7,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050.69 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 10,288$2,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,986.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 1,150$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 499.94$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 308.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 282.21$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 23c | 259.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 220.95$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 190.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 177.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 101.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 100.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Chicago Cubs | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 91.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 87.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Cubs | 22c | 69.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 69.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 61.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 52.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Chicago Cubs | 28c | 44.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 40.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 39.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 38.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 34.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 31.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Chicago Cubs | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 30.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…c386backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 29.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.