MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x282f908270da9d012b182d8285d5a29401b07aa83fefb9b206781410f43e0247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 4,654$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.46 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 2,945$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 1,961$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 49c | 1,923$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.89 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,856$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.4 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.49 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 1,387$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,277$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 1,166$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.05 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 1,091$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 931.06$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 851.99$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.31 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 38c | 683.08$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 625.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.04 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 530$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 473$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.77 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 48c | 406.25$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 50c | 400.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 55c | 364.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.06 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 56c | 350$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 315.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 305.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Over | 47c | 285.11$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 128.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 39c | 128.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 16c | 121.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 102.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 91.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Over | 48c | 81.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 50c | 67.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 51c | 66.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 64.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 57c | 57.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 41.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 40.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 48c | 40.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 51c | 36.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 56c | 36.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Over | 54c | 32.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 50c | 28.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 47c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 70c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.