MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2acb8b2e24fced1cbb4eb042d32c931f8c4236b3f8d8cdd4b797fbe4b9d03851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 10,861$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,950.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 3,654$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 3,637$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.7 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 3,485$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 3,400$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 2,240$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.06 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 2,087$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 1,914$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…be90backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,001$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 886.25$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.2 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 700$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 284.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.85 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 238$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 209.75$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 166.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 165.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 149.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 113$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 73.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 68.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 68.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 58.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 48.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 47.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 46.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 35.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…e0e2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 33.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.