TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

South American Leagues · resolved market

Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-03-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,150 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Yes25c17,993$4,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,498.341,98544.8%890 W · 1,095 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No78c12,935$10,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.855,82145.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L+97.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe519…2f48backed Yes23c7,467$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.93225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No76c6,005$4,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.288,17548.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L+27.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No72c4,965$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.883,44651.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L+21.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11a…53ebbacked No73c4,790$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.1110155.4%56 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes29c4,534$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.719239.1%75 W · 117 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No69c4,313$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.2937851.3%194 W · 184 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes11c3,608$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.653928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3497…812bbacked Yes30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+37.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No75c3,155$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.181,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Yes22c2,315$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3913548.9%66 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No77c2,210$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.1249449%242 W · 252 L+22.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62013234.1%45 W · 87 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db2…ca52backed Yes30c1,639$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.753023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No69c1,604$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.2522657.1%129 W · 97 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No71c1,489$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.8123354.9%128 W · 105 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes23c1,278$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.167125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed No72c1,242$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.854100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes31c1,129$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012741.7%53 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Yes31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104825%12 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed No73c962$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9055…12cebacked Yes28c800.99$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.289428.7%27 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f3…e4a1backed No71c640$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed No70c599.98$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9917066.5%113 W · 57 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…aa15backed No72c595.83$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No79c525.82$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.661,09155.6%607 W · 484 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Yes29c524.14$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No72c506$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.683259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbc…8a18backed No72c504$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551,36249.8%678 W · 684 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes31c489.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Yes27c401$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.765442.6%23 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa558…dc8cbacked Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Yes27c344$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7321752.1%113 W · 104 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed No72c342.47$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8928443%122 W · 162 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No72c339.29$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9521849.5%108 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No70c332.3$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6910819.4%21 W · 87 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a0d…82c9backed No72c321$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…9c28backed No71c317.07$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.281250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8739853%211 W · 187 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked No70c299.98$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.998056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Yes6c292.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3511230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked No71c280$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked No73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.973066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No72c272.7$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.711,44251.9%748 W · 694 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes28c267.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick28cpaid+54.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No70c263.34$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.721,67850.8%853 W · 825 L-3.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e56…8243backed No71c256$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed No71c256$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yes6c250$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4870055.7%390 W · 310 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7518433.2%61 W · 123 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.52,34651.4%1,207 W · 1,139 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No76c230.34$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.911,46556.8%832 W · 633 L+55.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c206.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5887521.3%186 W · 689 L-83.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed No73c202$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4819133.5%64 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5415459.7%92 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x423c…25d5backed Yes25c199.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed No73c189$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.031266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09f7…3698backed Yes28c172.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked No71c167.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8127053%143 W · 127 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d1…f579backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef6…e31abacked Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes28c150.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2181651.6%421 W · 395 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9350746.7%237 W · 270 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c144$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7617560.6%106 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dde…e011backed Yes28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed No71c141.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.729655.2%53 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed No74c139.75$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.576141%25 W · 36 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7585…e77ebacked Yes30c138$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…aa51backed Yes29c132.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No70c130.42$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.531,25753.6%674 W · 583 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No71c124$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.968763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3218…a011backed No71c124$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No70c123.71$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.561,30553.6%700 W · 605 L+5.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed Yes29c120.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355026%13 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe3ec…9a1cbacked Yes30c116.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe758…cb71backed Yes30c114$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed No71c112.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.348248.8%40 W · 42 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes25c112.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.336432.8%21 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes28c108.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4428231.6%89 W · 193 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea87…1ad7backed Yes24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251520%3 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf52…555ebacked Yes29c103.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Yes29c100.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.574738.3%18 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308149.4%40 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6040…33a9backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016347.9%78 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1471…679dbacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8393…4f91backed No80c93.87$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.152236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes29c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.181740.8%333 W · 484 L+20.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d0…cb37backed Yes31c81.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes29c79.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0867948.2%327 W · 352 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f4…fa45backed Yes28c79.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206654.5%36 W · 30 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.