Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81549386f4f3eb9d4010fdec8a10797712bb2e7b96b7c4731250018c83eabf56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 403.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 311.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 235.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 187.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 181.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 171.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 161.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 152.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 15c | 149.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 19c | 125.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 102.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 100.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 83.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 75c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 65c | 55.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 50.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 41.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 40.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 40.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 32.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 63c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.