Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc030b3442731d889702ff43e5e13caa8905ad8a48e939b8196a023e4f91752c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 677.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 361$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 355.64$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 292.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 224.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 208.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 206.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.83 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 46c | 145.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 144.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 141.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 137.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 132.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 131.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 127$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 126.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 126$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 25c | 124.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 119.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 118.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 116.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 107.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 63c | 103.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 103.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 101.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…581bbacked Yes | 52c | 99.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 92.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 92.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 32c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 81.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 80.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed Yes | 18c | 79.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 77.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 69.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 66.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 60.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 59.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 58.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 32c | 55.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 54.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 50.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 65c | 43.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 41.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 66c | 37.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 36.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 65c | 34.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 31.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 28.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 71c | 28.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 66c | 21.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 20.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 17.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 16.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.