NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8156e7b921d3ce74966585da842b1b4ffe19bc2186f1a1b921e83e3290d7868f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Senators, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Lightning | 68c | 1,050$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Senators | 32c | 882.78$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.29 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lightning | 72c | 860.23$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.13 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 28c | 734$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.48 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Lightning | 66c | 667.65$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.65 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Senators | 34c | 641.21$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.2 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Senators | 35c | 577.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.93 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Senators | 42c | 463.42$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.65 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Lightning | 69c | 445$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.05 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 64c | 319.45$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.67 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Senators | 41c | 302.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…26d6backed Senators | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lightning | 59c | 261.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 66c | 238.67$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Senators | 36c | 237.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…0399backed Lightning | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Senators | 34c | 219.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 64c | 203.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Lightning | 67c | 174.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Lightning | 66c | 156.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Senators | 32c | 119.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…062ebacked Senators | 34c | 116.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Senators | 31c | 103.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2b…4b72backed Senators | 35c | 94.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Senators | 33c | 90.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…d15dbacked Lightning | 66c | 82.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Lightning | 66c | 75.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…f9d5backed Senators | 35c | 73.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8d…105abacked Lightning | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Lightning | 66c | 65.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Senators | 32c | 64.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Lightning | 66c | 59.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Lightning | 67c | 58.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Senators | 75c | 57.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Lightning | 66c | 51.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lightning | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Senators | 30c | 44.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…6543backed Senators | 35c | 42.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Senators | 41c | 41.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Senators | 42c | 39.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Senators | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Senators | 45c | 37.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lightning | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…0974backed Lightning | 66c | 33.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Lightning | 66c | 32.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Senators | 34c | 31.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Lightning | 66c | 31.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Senators | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Lightning | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Lightning | 66c | 25.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…a613backed Lightning | 77c | 23.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Lightning | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Lightning | 66c | 17.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.