NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2923d3111d034250e2d09ebf89a02eb8cbb6f49d45445fba5546ab9e8850fdd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 61c | 5,000$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.82 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Under | 40c | 3,140$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.99 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 39c | 2,428$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.09 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 2,206$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.17 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Over | 60c | 1,453$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.68 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 39c | 844.29$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.27 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 60c | 468$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 77c | 332.46$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.98 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 11c | 316$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.26 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 315.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 51c | 300.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 36c | 296.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 39c | 248.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 244.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Over | 49c | 215.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 73c | 206.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 19c | 204.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9a…989abacked Over | 50c | 200.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 60c | 197.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Over | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 73c | 136.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 54c | 102.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 102.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Under | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 37c | 69.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Over | 62c | 63.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 46c | 50.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 164 | 54.9%90 W · 74 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Under | 39c | 47.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 60c | 47.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 42.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 39c | 37.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 60c | 33.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13f…0730backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Under | 40c | 31.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…bfa6backed Over | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 39c | 29.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 40c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed Under | 41c | 24.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 51c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 50c | 22.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 61c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.