Fifa International · resolved market
IR Iran to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815705fdb454a221ce4b706f44681d648cc01cc9b997ea0b19045934eb0c676a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,103$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.17 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 24c | 1,900$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.15 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 1,650$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.02 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 1,087$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 75c | 689.75$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 54c | 479.19$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 71c | 400.06$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 29c | 364.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 419 | 68.3%286 W · 133 L | +65.4wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 32c | 292.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.24 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 75c | 264.43$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 69c | 259.46$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +28.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 256.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 77c | 223.4$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 55c | 219.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 24c | 205.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 68c | 164.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 586 | 42.8%251 W · 335 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…d98bbacked Yes | 13c | 157.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 78c | 131.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked No | 15c | 118.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 68c | 110.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…163abacked No | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed No | 22c | 81.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1497…4414backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 65c | 74.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 22c | 63.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 30c | 61.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…3dedbacked No | 24c | 52.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 141 | 39.7%56 W · 85 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 785 | 59.7%469 W · 316 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IR Iran to win the second half?this page
- Egypt to win the second half?No won
- Egypt vs. IR Iran: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.