Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Fulham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x819c18a3ec22b99ff4fa79df3cd9593fb47cc14742f580e0600fb7bd38419c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58ab…008cbacked Yes | 30c | 8,336$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…2521backed Yes | 30c | 6,661$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 6,527$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.83 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…417bbacked Yes | 30c | 5,001$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203c…24b4backed Yes | 30c | 5,001$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c541backed No | 70c | 4,290$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…6471backed No | 70c | 4,285$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2746…3cffbacked No | 70c | 3,570$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…6abbbacked No | 70c | 3,570$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…0389backed No | 70c | 3,570$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…0ccfbacked Yes | 30c | 3,336$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…0cc5backed No | 70c | 2,859$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d2…0a4abacked No | 70c | 2,856$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…3ab1backed No | 70c | 2,855$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…63b3backed No | 71c | 2,779$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 71c | 2,500$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…34d8backed No | 70c | 2,142$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 2,109$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.18 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 65c | 1,721$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.66 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 29c | 1,699$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.77 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,693$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.95 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b4…a5ebbacked Yes | 30c | 1,672$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Yes | 37c | 1,600$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 1,364$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.76 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Yes | 31c | 974$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 30c | 587.93$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 31c | 323.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 70c | 189.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…8d68backed Yes | 37c | 189.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 69c | 180.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…cb8cbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 31c | 170.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 165$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…a128backed Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…7df0backed Yes | 29c | 104.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 22c | 96.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 69c | 87.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 74c | 73.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…7684backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…a237backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 31c | 57.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 69c | 37.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 64c | 32.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Fulham end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
- Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.