WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ad9c93451d10d93f1e31bff3331cbf9489c4fdab66c12cadf4307a3550d83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Aces, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mercury | 51c | 4,752$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.19 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mercury | 61c | 4,748$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.9 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Mercury | 33c | 4,005$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Aces | 39c | 3,849$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.57 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…7a36backed Aces | 44c | 3,171$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Mercury | 61c | 2,714$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Aces | 41c | 2,505$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.64 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 66c | 2,100$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Aces | 39c | 2,050$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.5 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 60c | 1,904$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.38 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 60c | 1,323$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.67 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aces | 68c | 1,107$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.22 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4804…a3bcbacked Aces | 38c | 1,100$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…d15bbacked Mercury | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…1897backed Mercury | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Aces | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…c079backed Aces | 38c | 900$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Aces | 38c | 800$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…cf9cbacked Aces | 38c | 757.5$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Aces | 35c | 665.41$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.83 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Mercury | 60c | 554.99$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mercury | 61c | 522.41$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.67 | 394 | 50.5%199 W · 195 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Aces | 68c | 378.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Aces | 62c | 320.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Aces | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 95 | 13.7%13 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Mercury | 61c | 265$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Aces | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Aces | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aces | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Aces | 53c | 254.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.51 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mercury | 49c | 232$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Mercury | 29c | 221.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Aces | 51c | 200.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Aces | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Mercury | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef0…1282backed Mercury | 45c | 199.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…9adfbacked Aces | 38c | 160.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Mercury | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Aces | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mercury | 60c | 132.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Aces | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Aces | 37c | 127.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Mercury | 50c | 120.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Mercury | 47c | 105.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Aces | 39c | 101.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aces | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…6924backed Aces | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…1fc5backed Aces | 68c | 88.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mercury | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Aces | 38c | 79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Aces | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 62c | 69.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Aces | 38c | 68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Aces | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…2f9dbacked Aces | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Mercury | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Aces | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Aces | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…742dbacked Mercury | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +247.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Aces | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Aces | 40c | 38.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Aces | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Aces | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…199dbacked Mercury | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.