MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81d4bef063af2d4d7eb520ab60af72019236ef501e6afa99a310990746a20ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 2,418$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.64 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 48c | 2,418$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.64 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,670$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 52c | 1,483$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.69 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 51c | 700.71$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.66 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 299.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 48c | 211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed Over | 48c | 189.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Under | 52c | 133$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 32c | 39.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 25.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Marlins vs. PhilliesPhillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.