Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824d5ee33704d8fa71acfd41c60f4978a2b8fb7d349ec7f22f4d18f512ccd627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3dc…eaa8backed Osaka | 59c | 6,795$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.64 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wang | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Osaka | 56c | 3,584$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.66 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Wang | 44c | 3,051$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.89 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Wang | 47c | 1,957$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.65 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Osaka | 57c | 1,754$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.09 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Wang | 13c | 1,748$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.21 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Osaka | 53c | 1,675$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.38 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Osaka | 55c | 1,095$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.7 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Wang | 45c | 1,028$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.6 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…bdbdbacked Osaka | 59c | 993.47$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Wang | 43c | 930.5$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.66 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Wang | 43c | 669.89$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Wang | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.2 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Wang | 40c | 498.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Wang | 27c | 466.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wang | 43c | 407$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Wang | 43c | 400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Wang | 48c | 369.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Osaka | 52c | 364.32$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Osaka | 54c | 291.35$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Wang | 43c | 283.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Wang | 24c | 260.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Wang | 41c | 258.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Osaka | 62c | 233.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Osaka | 65c | 215.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Wang | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Wang | 42c | 185.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Wang | 46c | 163$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Wang | 43c | 156.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Wang | 14c | 144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Wang | 43c | 143$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wang | 18c | 132$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Wang | 28c | 118.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Osaka | 56c | 112.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Wang | 46c | 106.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Osaka | 54c | 106.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Wang | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Wang | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…6cb3backed Wang | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Wang | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Wang | 46c | 93.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…6563backed Osaka | 80c | 74.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Osaka | 57c | 69.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Wang | 42c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Wang | 44c | 58.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Wang | 45c | 58.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Osaka | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked Osaka | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Wang | 43c | 50.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Wang | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Osaka | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…4fc0backed Osaka | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Wang | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Osaka | 57c | 31.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Wang | 43c | 31.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Osaka | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…da5dbacked Osaka | 72c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…cdcfbacked Osaka | 56c | 18.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)this page
- Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
- Set 1 Winner: Wang vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set 2 Winner: Wang vs OsakaOsaka won
- Xinyu Wang vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.