MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826bdafc9d6d4faa28ef3595abbf5c77d9e837c8501a3e14e79fd10e3c2da105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 3,631$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.53 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 1,145$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 666.71$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 626.47$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.32 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 418.22$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 249.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 150.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 146.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 120.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 103.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 68.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 66.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 65.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 60.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 31.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 22.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.