MLB · resolved market

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcefe14ee033fb6f657c29540d468a370c6fb25fad9ae19214f057f941a16ada4

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,995 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe840…733cbacked Over	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-13.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Over	44c	3,869$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	265	45.7%121 W · 144 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	54c	2,325$1,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,065.28	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad63…d66fbacked Under	54c	2,210$1,186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,024.21	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under	44c	2,065$905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,160.23	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	54c	1,812$985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$985.48	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under	56c	1,780$991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$789.36	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over	46c	1,497$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.82	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	58c	1,304$751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.13	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under	55c	1,223$672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.99	273	51.3%140 W · 133 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over	45c	1,217$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.49	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over	45c	1,111$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	891	53.5%477 W · 414 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecee…2120backed Under	56c	1,071$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.43	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9366…a9f6backed Under	56c	1,000$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked Under	56c	1,000$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under	54c	997.11$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.77	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986b…12e9backed Over	44c	767.9$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.88	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over	45c	551.99$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.13	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	41c	446.98$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.99	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over	44c	411.63$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.85	252	49.6%125 W · 127 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	48c	311.95$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.74	781	46.4%362 W · 419 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	58c	273.87$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.3	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Under	56c	272.38$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.85	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Under	58c	206.9$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.9	665	51.1%340 W · 325 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Over	42c	182.9$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.82	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	267	51.7%138 W · 129 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over	45c	174$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.3	780	52.2%407 W · 373 L	+22.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	61c	171.6$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.68	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Under	49c	168.91$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.37	194	42.3%82 W · 112 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over	69c	155.76$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.38	281	54.4%153 W · 128 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under	55c	145.34$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.81	496	49.8%247 W · 249 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under	55c	139.99$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.35	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under	55c	110$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.6	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over	45c	107.4$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	904	46.9%424 W · 480 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Over	45c	104$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	625	54.2%339 W · 286 L	+23.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Over	52c	95.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	150	37.3%56 W · 94 L	-15.3wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Under	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over	67c	86.57$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-4.8wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under	58c	82$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	290	47.6%138 W · 152 L	-11.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	58c	78.14$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.67	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	57c	70.17$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.22	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	42c	69.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.45	753	44.1%332 W · 421 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ad…5097backed Under	40c	59$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.67	83	47%39 W · 44 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Under	34c	58.14$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.19	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed Over	71c	56.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.63	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Under	34c	43.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.99	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	65c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239d…daebbacked Under	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	303	50.8%154 W · 149 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over	38c	39.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	524	49%257 W · 267 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under	54c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	213	53.5%114 W · 99 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	57c	36.93$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.88	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Over	62c	36$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	150	45.3%68 W · 82 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Under	55c	33.36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.01	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under	37c	27.16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.06	499	42.9%214 W · 285 L	-31.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Over	45c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	187	51.3%96 W · 91 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	42c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1,137	46.3%526 W · 611 L	+36.1wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over	59c	22.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1434…d63bbacked Under	58c	20.68$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.58	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Over	54c	19.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b8…d4b3backed Over	62c	17.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	76	55.3%42 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event