MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c59dfaabd8a607ddab20ab6f97d1622fe7336fcf60c85127bc4ba6aa8ae6bcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 4,094$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 3,369$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 73c | 2,507$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 35c | 1,439$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.35 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 10c | 1,245$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 41c | 1,039$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.98 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 498.58$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 405.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.38 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 21c | 364.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 59c | 335.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 333.33$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 62c | 234.95$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 63c | 231.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 62c | 200.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 192$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 72c | 179$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 62c | 160.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Under | 40c | 158.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 63c | 154.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 65c | 124.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 71c | 106.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Over | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 61c | 86.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 40c | 63.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…c12dbacked Over | 63c | 42.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Under | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed Under | 39c | 35.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 77c | 30.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 26.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Over | 65c | 25.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 62c | 25.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Over | 65c | 20.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e1…0a28backed Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.