MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32a508ab0858546645fea323b4ad0133fb2e00801bed02b7f323a2c67be85069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 45c | 3,129$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.56 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 2,716$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Over | 45c | 1,301$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 1,300$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 727$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.06 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 676.8$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 37c | 600.55$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.06 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 56c | 466.86$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 423.02$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 38c | 372.39$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 314$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 63c | 297.23$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 48c | 272.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 267.01$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 189$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 170.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 52c | 139.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 127.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 124$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 54c | 116.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 96.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Under | 51c | 78.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed Over | 49c | 76.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 76c | 64.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…8f18backed Over | 49c | 62.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 52.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 55c | 40.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Over | 37c | 35.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 49c | 32.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Over | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 58c | 22.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 56c | 19.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 55c | 18.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 62c | 17.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 62c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.