UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827d3816b2d044b68593465067b4f502753eb8aa4206123b6b012c2811d95954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0267backed No | 64c | 1,082$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.49 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Yes | 62c | 991.41$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 57c | 893.57$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.21 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…ef52backed Yes | 46c | 862.83$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 54c | 826.79$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.33 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 38c | 523.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.77 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…52eebacked Yes | 37c | 313.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 60c | 286.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed No | 8c | 250.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked No | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 12c | 179$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…5041backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…db20backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…7d62backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…3503backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 48c | 37.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +281.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…b28bbacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 54c | 31.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…6204backed Yes | 48c | 26.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…8845backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…0deebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.