UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ed6ad99909d34e0e412cc92a8bd6289e3a49769b0bbb2a1787f6a93c62418c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b17…abcdbacked No | 73c | 5,508$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 27c | 3,675$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.55 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 29c | 1,505$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.6 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 28c | 902.37$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.66 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 67c | 842.4$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked No | 73c | 686.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed No | 70c | 497.83$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 32c | 441.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Yes | 32c | 399.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 67c | 366.33$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 33c | 309.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 26c | 196.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe310…0e9dbacked Yes | 33c | 172.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 66c | 167.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…e6babacked Yes | 33c | 160.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…dda9backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…8a7cbacked Yes | 37c | 134.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…f049backed Yes | 33c | 111.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 30c | 100.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…701bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 99.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603e…43febacked Yes | 33c | 87.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9ce5backed Yes | 30c | 84.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…7972backed No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…7d62backed No | 73c | 73.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…7288backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb35…2e23backed Yes | 43c | 70.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed No | 74c | 62.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed No | 72c | 56.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 46.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…abf8backed No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff4…a15bbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked No | 69c | 29.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked No | 74c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked No | 68c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.