UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3fb08a80de61fc0304512b534e7df069946574397419a55bcf0ee8404df9e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 42c | 2,181$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.04 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 66c | 1,042$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.37 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Under | 42c | 610$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 31c | 529.43$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 477.61$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Over | 59c | 475.08$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 41c | 445.08$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 57c | 272.41$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Under | 48c | 208.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 30c | 201.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 199.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 56c | 188.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Under | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 46c | 174$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Under | 46c | 161.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 43c | 146$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…eb89backed Over | 56c | 89.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Over | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…b28bbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Over | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Under | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9f…06d2backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.