UFC · resolved market
Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b364ac493a693feb829dc4639b159ace1b1f4d28da56d6763e5995733807db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Yes | 25c | 2,828$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.99 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 66c | 1,358$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.28 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 73c | 1,044$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.9 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 78c | 954.96$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…aaf9backed Yes | 46c | 863.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…2730backed Yes | 30c | 477.27$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…7f92backed Yes | 26c | 418.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 27c | 375.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…44c3backed No | 69c | 349.99$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed No | 16c | 188.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 152.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…27d8backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 34c | 88.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…ddcfbacked Yes | 25c | 81.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9ce5backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…00a4backed Yes | 26c | 45.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 35c | 33.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked No | 79c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Saint Denis won
- Will Dan Hooker win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.