Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82825ed61a2cc7910c3e186c0af0b75b60e0d9d425438f1bf1fbd333be28244e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,192$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.45 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 16c | 990.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 17c | 890.84$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.66 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 720.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 718.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.17 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 45c | 668.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.1 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 68c | 542.62$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.02 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 54c | 534.47$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.76 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…b99fbacked No | 8c | 528$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 523.93$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 20c | 473$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 58c | 448.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 78c | 437.03$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 76c | 415.36$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 369.74$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.54 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 75c | 347.74$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.46 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 337.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 32c | 292.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.74 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 283.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 39c | 253.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 30c | 247.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 55c | 209.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 23c | 207.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 191.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 48c | 178.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 49c | 169.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 51c | 161.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…b89bbacked Yes | 12c | 154.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 149.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 54c | 139.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 59c | 133.91$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 67c | 126.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…b5febacked Yes | 47c | 126.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 125.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 43c | 117.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 18c | 111.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 48c | 108.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 105.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 47c | 102.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 45c | 99.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 42c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 50c | 95.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…9b7cbacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed No | 50c | 89.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 88.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…c252backed Yes | 79c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9610…49dbbacked Yes | 47c | 85.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…4519backed Yes | 56c | 83.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 80.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 65c | 79.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…f08bbacked Yes | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 52c | 72.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6c…a93cbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 41c | 58.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 54c | 58.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 57.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cde…a22dbacked Yes | 52c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…1c2ebacked Yes | 20c | 56.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 56.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 56.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 54.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…ff18backed Yes | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 57c | 50.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…ea60backed Yes | 43c | 48.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 72c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 42c | 47.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 56c | 47.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 52c | 45.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 74c | 43.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 52c | 43.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 41.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…4929backed No | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…496cbacked Yes | 48c | 37.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 41c | 36.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked No | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 40c | 32.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c64…43f2backed Yes | 46c | 32.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 54c | 31.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 31.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 38c | 30.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.