Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x676b77984baca0c764c4454cdf8092f6cce6263c2f67d7e92f5a495a69a6a4b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf874…1ee0backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a4a9backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 27c | 1,295$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.26 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…b99fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,227$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 11c | 999.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 921.46$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 654.21$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…0723backed No | 77c | 587.67$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 39c | 581.33$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 578.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…e42dbacked Yes | 2c | 527.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 24c | 496.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 466.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 5c | 368.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 340.22$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 7c | 305$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 298.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 294.9$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 69c | 288.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 77c | 262.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 255.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 242.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 220.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 43c | 219.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 211.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 41c | 210.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 27c | 192.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 19c | 191.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 158.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 59c | 150.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 9c | 150.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 66c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 69c | 143.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…1c2ebacked Yes | 11c | 135.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 16c | 121.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 18c | 111.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 46c | 111.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 110.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 40c | 108.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 106.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 20c | 99.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 99.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 80c | 97.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 94.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 84.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 76c | 78.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 16c | 73.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 21c | 68.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 64.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 19c | 61.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 19c | 60.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…f08bbacked Yes | 58c | 59.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 56.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 54.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 59c | 54.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 71c | 54.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9beb…2f44backed No | 74c | 51.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 22c | 48.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 31c | 47.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…a767backed Yes | 29c | 46.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 39c | 45.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 40.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 27c | 40.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 55c | 36.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 57c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 48c | 27.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…128abacked No | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 72c | 25.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 73c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…d4adbacked No | 77c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…18a6backed No | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 49c | 20.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.