Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Yuki Mochizuki vs Ryota Tanuma
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82bb935a61bb7b1d44ad12daa6b14583bfdfd78abe0dc653d169fbc44adbb8bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuki Mochizukiof Yuki Mochizuki, Ryota Tanuma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Ryota Tanuma | 57c | 1,755$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 52c | 1,167$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.9 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ryota Tanuma | 58c | 851.87$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yuki Mochizuki | 42c | 800.45$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.45 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Ryota Tanuma | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Ryota Tanuma | 54c | 552.45$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.32 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -13.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Yuki Mochizuki | 49c | 529.54$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.48 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Ryota Tanuma | 26c | 518.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Yuki Mochizuki | 68c | 483.18$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yuki Mochizuki | 46c | 432$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…339fbacked Ryota Tanuma | 21c | 399.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 76c | 389.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ryota Tanuma | 17c | 388.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Ryota Tanuma | 49c | 364.91$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.81 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yuki Mochizuki | 51c | 267.45$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.11 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ryota Tanuma | 48c | 178.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Ryota Tanuma | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 247 | 40.1%99 W · 148 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yuki Mochizuki | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yuki Mochizuki | 44c | 86.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 62c | 76.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Yuki Mochizuki | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Yuki Mochizuki | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Yuki Mochizuki | 56c | 57.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yuki Mochizuki | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Yuki Mochizuki | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Ryota Tanuma | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Ryota Tanuma | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Yuki Mochizuki | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Yuki Mochizuki | 54c | 49.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Ryota Tanuma | 51c | 44.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yuki Mochizuki | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Yuki Mochizuki | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yuki Mochizuki | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Yuki Mochizuki | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Yuki Mochizuki | 74c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Yuki Mochizuki | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.