Tennis · resolved market
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82eaf462178a873d62b84c09a3ea9f6895aa18f45abdd312d0e4f579cf30d625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gilles Arnaud Baillyof Gilles Arnaud Bailly, Lucas Poullain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 57c | 2,407$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.04 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Lucas Poullain | 42c | 2,369$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.97 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…95babacked Lucas Poullain | 6c | 2,323$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Lucas Poullain | 29c | 2,089$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.6 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 76c | 1,896$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.89 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…9f29backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 73c | 1,464$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.35 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 72c | 1,107$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Lucas Poullain | 28c | 997.29$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.73 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Lucas Poullain | 8c | 684.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lucas Poullain | 20c | 668.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 79c | 637.39$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.23 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Lucas Poullain | 27c | 634.02$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530b…244fbacked Lucas Poullain | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Lucas Poullain | 26c | 528.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 74c | 266.66$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 73c | 260.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Lucas Poullain | 37c | 230.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 70c | 162.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 59c | 155.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Lucas Poullain | 46c | 132.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 306 | 42.2%129 W · 177 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Lucas Poullain | 29c | 103.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Lucas Poullain | 21c | 101.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 66c | 97.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…9a30backed Lucas Poullain | 22c | 96.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 56c | 87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Lucas Poullain | 28c | 83.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lucas Poullain | 24c | 83.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Lucas Poullain | 23c | 80.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Lucas Poullain | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Lucas Poullain | 16c | 65.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Lucas Poullain | 32c | 64.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 79c | 64.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Lucas Poullain | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Lucas Poullain | 23c | 62.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 71c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Lucas Poullain | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Lucas Poullain | 27c | 46.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Lucas Poullain | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Lucas Poullain | 34c | 39.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 70c | 29.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 72c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Gilles Arnaud Bailly | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.