NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ec75741c99e5cd72fca61009ac35c62c34ce6bb9415d7978458e01ffddc324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,937 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 57c | 7,174$4,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.18 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 43c | 6,259$2,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,547.26 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 57c | 4,392$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.38 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 2,803$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.71 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 43c | 2,210$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.6 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,429$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.59 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 476.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.45 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 395.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.35 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 44c | 280$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 129.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 87.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 42c | 83.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 231 | 48.9%113 W · 118 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 57c | 61.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 58c | 52.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 49.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 58c | 31.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 50c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Under | 57c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 57c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Under | 57c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 57c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 58c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. StarsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Stars won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.