NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0eb896c30795e9b58867ce0d55535e553cb1399de94f8b585cb028ab18bc8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,073 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 45c | 8,228$3,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,702.39 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 55c | 7,937$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,567.07 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,571$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 45c | 2,243$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.35 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 56c | 2,113$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.74 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 56c | 1,780$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 864$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.8 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 499.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 43c | 332.78$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 14c | 303$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 14c | 298.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 12c | 140.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Under | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc066…8279backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 33c | 94.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 45c | 61.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…a255backed Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 35.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Under | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9b…61c7backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4015…c724backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18f…ea66backed Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. StarsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Stars won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.