NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43810c578e39647c92825ed3af1d60bad72138f70ce8df268b3be18290639f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Avalanche, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,019 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Stars | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Avalanche | 31c | 639.81$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Avalanche | 31c | 452$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Avalanche | 30c | 377.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 31c | 272$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Avalanche | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stars | 67c | 242.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Avalanche | 31c | 226$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Stars | 70c | 113.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Avalanche | 31c | 113$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Avalanche | 31c | 113$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Avalanche | 30c | 73.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Stars | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Stars | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Stars | 69c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Stars | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Avalanche | 33c | 39.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Stars | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Stars | 69c | 23.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Stars | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Stars | 68c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Stars | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Stars | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. StarsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.