TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over51c5,972$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045.541842.8%179 W · 239 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over50c5,784$2,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.3542254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under51c5,097$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.4412146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under49c3,902$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.0220756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over51c2,002$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.831,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Over47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94026750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under49c2,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.9816546.7%77 W · 88 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Under53c1,995$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.6525446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under49c1,989$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.071,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over48c1,544$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.5751550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under50c1,077$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.626154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Under52c1,052$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.926953.6%37 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c1,021$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.12,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under49c623.85$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.161,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2047651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over29c355$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9592049.7%457 W · 463 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Under56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1329160.4%55 W · 36 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Over44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1329436.2%34 W · 60 L-13.1wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over51c199.94$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9762447.3%295 W · 329 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9df…1e41backed Under72c151.12$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.78580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under49c139$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.891,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.738551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over29c128.84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5811435.1%40 W · 74 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Over17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under74c108$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5261848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over52c102.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.519141.9%80 W · 111 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.045131.4%16 W · 35 L-8.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-34.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Under49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under53c85.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9224946.2%115 W · 134 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Under49c60.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.797258.3%42 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Over50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022255.9%124 W · 98 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under53c52.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7733837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Under50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256453.1%34 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Under56c44.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6411253.6%60 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Under49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8212551.2%64 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Over46c36.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7410033%33 W · 67 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over48c35.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0412152.1%63 W · 58 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under54c35.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2418453.8%99 W · 85 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under51c32.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8645651.5%235 W · 221 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1a…8984backed Over41c32.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.093253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Under58c31.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.957852.6%41 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under62c30.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9121463.1%135 W · 79 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Under49c28.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4715651.9%81 W · 75 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under49c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7727659.4%164 W · 112 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under60c26.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.542,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbbee…30b9backed Under49c24.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.494465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.1wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Under49c24.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.497052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3038…9513backed Under56c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b4…673ebacked Over44c23.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f1…64ddbacked Under56c21.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.683100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd8f…d74cbacked Under56c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb10…da5abacked Under56c20.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b8…de54backed Under56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Over51c19.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25650%28 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.