NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830d432c1f1682a119c66f55e01f22f9b16d1cc6b5812eb5f6fcec5247bcb237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 51c | 5,972$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.5 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 50c | 5,784$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.35 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 51c | 5,097$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.44 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 3,902$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.02 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 2,002$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.83 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 49c | 2,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.98 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Under | 53c | 1,995$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.65 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,989$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.07 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 1,544$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.57 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 50c | 1,077$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.6 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Under | 52c | 1,052$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.92 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,021$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.1 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 623.85$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.16 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 29c | 355$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 199.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Under | 72c | 151.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 139$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 29c | 128.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Over | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 74c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 52c | 102.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 53c | 85.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Under | 49c | 60.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 53c | 52.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 46c | 36.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 48c | 35.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 54c | 35.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 32.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 41c | 32.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 58c | 31.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 62c | 30.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 49c | 28.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 26.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…9513backed Under | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…673ebacked Over | 44c | 23.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…64ddbacked Under | 56c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…d74cbacked Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…da5abacked Under | 56c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b8…de54backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 51c | 19.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. KrakenKraken won
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.