NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x958024232a91bc94e9b8244a47dd9e29a44bf13855dbc82a53a5db64c74baba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 49c | 2,075$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.49 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,664$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.79 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 40c | 1,531$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.49 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 59c | 888.3$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 845.9$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 562.93$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 40c | 383.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.21 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 63c | 348.33$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 259.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 91.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 74.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 48c | 56.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 39.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 42c | 34.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 62c | 31.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 26.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…414fbacked Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…dfbebacked Over | 54c | 20.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…d211backed Over | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. KrakenKraken won
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flames vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.