Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x831ab52606abbfa5e4beeba33107d494201bcdd51011785235833c80ca77cc02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 15c | 654.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 505.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 413.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 400.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 392$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 255.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 4c | 249.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 228.84$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 224.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 20c | 208.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 14c | 186.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 131.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 95.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 76.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…07cabacked No | 80c | 73.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 17c | 71.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.