Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08a8b8a21ecf534db4af48cd86f3b8fc1093b87797c338a23348499058f6097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 36c | 1,033$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.57 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 917.41$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…47fdbacked Yes | 39c | 748.41$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 723.79$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 721.68$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 625.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 51c | 591.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…1db9backed Yes | 57c | 459.71$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 419$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 354.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 336.58$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 286.3$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 267.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 253.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 249.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 246.84$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abd…03e3backed Yes | 45c | 222.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 44c | 201.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 54c | 189.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 55c | 189.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 56c | 179.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 62c | 177.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 52c | 170.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed No | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…0a2abacked Yes | 71c | 164.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 157.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 153.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 49c | 144.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 137.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 136$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 49c | 133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 122.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 121.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 113$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 109.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 63c | 104$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed No | 49c | 101.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…8ed5backed Yes | 43c | 100.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 100.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 49c | 87.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 86.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 82.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 47c | 81.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 41c | 70.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…2174backed Yes | 49c | 70.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 68.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 66.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 50c | 62.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 61.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 58.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 57.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 57.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 43c | 54.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 53.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 52.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 57c | 49.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 49.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 58c | 48.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 53c | 47.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 45.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 48c | 45.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 31c | 39.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 54c | 38.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 36.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 34.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…69f8backed Yes | 54c | 33.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 59c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 29.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 52c | 27.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 24.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 62c | 21.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.