NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8367fa04b4630c37a5c0de3851970afdb3c653d69a0832f3207c5daabeccf340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,406 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 37c | 1,686$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.82 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 63c | 1,236$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.49 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 62c | 616$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.83 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 502.5$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.25 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 36c | 485.79$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 397$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 36c | 264.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 65c | 255.71$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 63c | 231.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 202$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 148.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 140.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…9d76backed Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 64c | 97.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…db46backed Over | 74c | 86.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 64c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 69.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…db7ebacked Under | 25c | 50.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…376cbacked Under | 36c | 49.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 34c | 39.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 75c | 33.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 66c | 31.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…e929backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…6321backed Over | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Over | 65c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…cf24backed Over | 80c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. CanucksDucks won
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.