NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dbab4be657048f4f84a35600f2eb5fc8170a509e3d63d798fe46cdcdd97c3c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,658 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 1,675$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.63 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 54c | 1,111$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.81 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 65c | 500$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Over | 61c | 478.11$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.35 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 400.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 27c | 388.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 74c | 337.14$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 298.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 48c | 223.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 34c | 210$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 208.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 80c | 179.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 40c | 133.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 47c | 112.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…db46backed Over | 48c | 110.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 34c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 55c | 102.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 43c | 96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 66c | 92.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 67c | 91.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…6c84backed Under | 76c | 78.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 73c | 67.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 69c | 64.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 66c | 53.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 47.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ef…77e7backed Under | 44c | 45.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 33c | 37.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 27c | 37.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 33c | 33.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 53c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Under | 38c | 28.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 62c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. CanucksDucks won
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.