Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x836e0f052c42a1cc7282f1645bb9fceabb2e72dfd7f197bd9624d06ff4790a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 1c | 4,116$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 27c | 400.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.21 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 263.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 243.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 240.56$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 32c | 235.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.27 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 207.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 187.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 176.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 167.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 29c | 125.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 28c | 122$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 79c | 69.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 32c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 54c | 50.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 49.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 44.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 77c | 41.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 41.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 39.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 37.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 37.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 34.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 34.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 69c | 33.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 76c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed No | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 26.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 76c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 68c | 16.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…af9fbacked No | 77c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.