NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837cc51f8edb26d0b54d59c60462b04dd1b23046e7eb970691b135a9badf1f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 53c | 10,848$5,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,135.17 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 45c | 5,445$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.17 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 4,166$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.17 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…81a2backed Over | 55c | 1,790$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 1,018$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.18 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 976.91$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.06 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…21b6backed Under | 49c | 679.59$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 677$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 640.52$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.42 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 57c | 595.41$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.03 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 52c | 449.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.55 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…1c8fbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 346.36$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 53c | 340$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Over | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 46c | 179.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Under | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Under | 47c | 102.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…112bbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…49aabacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…8bdfbacked Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…5f9bbacked Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…6202backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 47c | 22.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. RavensSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 43.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.