NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2445906da6f582b747ec2ba2130b88643edde3be436b53b324fcc4b6d765ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Ravens, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Steelers | 53c | 25,615$13,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,043.65 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Ravens | 46c | 22,906$10,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,536.67 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ravens | 47c | 7,980$3,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,747.23 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Steelers | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Ravens | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Ravens | 47c | 6,654$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.38 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ravens | 47c | 6,572$3,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,088.87 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Steelers | 53c | 3,634$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.97 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ravens | 47c | 3,169$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.43 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Steelers | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Ravens | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Steelers | 54c | 2,929$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.27 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Ravens | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Steelers | 53c | 2,250$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.47 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Ravens | 47c | 1,905$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.35 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…21b6backed Steelers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Steelers | 53c | 1,205$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.32 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Ravens | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Steelers | 54c | 820.87$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Steelers | 54c | 531$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Steelers | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ravens | 46c | 491.01$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ravens | 45c | 455.8$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Steelers | 55c | 414.15$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.37 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ravens | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Steelers | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Steelers | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ravens | 47c | 219$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Ravens | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…fde1backed Ravens | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Steelers | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Steelers | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Steelers | 55c | 196.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Steelers | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Ravens | 46c | 188$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Ravens | 46c | 186$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Steelers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ravens | 46c | 179$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Steelers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668a…e8e1backed Ravens | 48c | 131.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Ravens | 47c | 115.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Ravens | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ravens | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Steelers | 53c | 88.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Ravens | 45c | 82.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Steelers | 52c | 74.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Ravens | 47c | 70.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Steelers | 66c | 60.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Ravens | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Ravens | 47c | 53.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Steelers | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Ravens | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Steelers | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Ravens | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…b26abacked Steelers | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…793ebacked Ravens | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Ravens | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Ravens | 48c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…74e1backed Ravens | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Steelers | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Steelers | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Ravens | 45c | 22.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…d3e6backed Steelers | 53c | 21.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. RavensSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 43.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.