NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8a617fee5aaea189e3f8d4a0dfc437ef0d8cfea77261405de1b24a677675fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 48c | 20,509$9,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,844.49 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 9,982$5,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,945.47 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 9,773$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,691.09 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 50c | 8,053$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 49c | 7,000$3,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,427 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe796…7f5ebacked Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 3,895$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.6 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 3,547$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.85 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 1,771$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.58 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 51c | 1,700$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Under | 51c | 827.45$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 492.74$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 52c | 256.15$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 53c | 214$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 50c | 213.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Under | 51c | 204$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 132.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 52c | 105.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 32.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. RavensSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.