NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ef89c26032f2ba855a62e2bed10baefe1e0f798f59c0054baf1e4f6e95af1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Ravens, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Ravens | 42c | 12,089$5,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,056.39 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Steelers | 59c | 5,521$3,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.28 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Steelers | 58c | 3,264$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.83 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Steelers | 59c | 2,629$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.64 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Steelers | 58c | 2,065$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.3 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Steelers | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Ravens | 40c | 1,998$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.07 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ravens | 41c | 1,087$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.67 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Ravens | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers | 58c | 971.81$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.16 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ravens | 41c | 968$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.88 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Steelers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Steelers | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Steelers | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Steelers | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Steelers | 60c | 228.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Steelers | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Steelers | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ravens | 39c | 148.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ravens | 41c | 113$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ravens | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Steelers | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Steelers | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…2e0cbacked Steelers | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Steelers | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Steelers | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. RavensSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 43.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.