MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x838cae34d3e948ce0411e6547ed5326b9056ed05c5841d1cd616272ac7c4ec4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 8,586$5,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,323.11 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 3,864$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.83 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 2,774$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.12 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 1,100$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 959.56$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.93 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 707.37$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.08 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 561.51$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.06 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 412.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.54 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…d70fbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 356.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 272.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 240.35$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 177.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 164.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 135.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 130.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 124.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 121$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 77.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 61.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 57.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 39.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…fd56backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 32.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 28.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…d41cbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.