MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3abcc3edee30e140427ff7079364b93ea22037ff716eb52174467674aaebccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 40,253$20,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,115.12 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 10,048$5,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,024.7 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 6,007$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022.61 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,232$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.97 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 49c | 3,400$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.98 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 51c | 3,177$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.37 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 2,925$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.38 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 2,139$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 1,927$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.48 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,619$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.88 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 1,145$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.11 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 707.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 52c | 693.83$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.79 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 681.42$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.01 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 50c | 597.61$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.46 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 594.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.09 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 50c | 559.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.96 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 50c | 495.05$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.53 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 50c | 459.08$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.03 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 451.61$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.32 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 424.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Under | 51c | 384.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 52c | 207.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 200.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 49c | 196.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 183.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 50c | 168.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 51c | 166.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 50c | 161.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 50c | 124.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 121.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 50c | 120.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 120.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 50c | 102.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 50c | 90.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 51c | 80.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…13f2backed Over | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…5bedbacked Over | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 50c | 61.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 53c | 41.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 53c | 34.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Over | 53c | 30.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed Under | 41c | 28.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 64c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…37e2backed Over | 50c | 20.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.