F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83b602301cd7e5b717b50e2c055d94433df638db563556209493fbc074ff8a4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 3c | 15,103$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…d7b7backed Yes | 1c | 5,040$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 3c | 4,683$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,142$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,057$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.13 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 2,460$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…a59abacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…fda1backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…f0e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 2c | 948.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…7505backed Yes | 1c | 801.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1e44backed Yes | 5c | 627.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 4c | 540.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 491.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 4c | 462.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 12c | 448.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…5bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 285.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…ab2cbacked Yes | 6c | 264.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…cc30backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…d389backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 20%20 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…88b8backed Yes | 9c | 199.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77a…d769backed Yes | 12c | 168.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…10d6backed Yes | 12c | 123.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 11c | 118.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +132%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…2b34backed Yes | 12c | 108.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.