Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c2b526f44ec9e3628972238a112857fa5ac737e77ea1177aadffea835d0bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 1c | 2,076$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 271.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 21c | 202.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 21c | 200.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1002backed No | 71c | 186.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 22c | 176.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 133.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 24c | 123.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 32c | 119.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 73c | 117.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 117.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 44c | 111.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 109.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 104.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…644dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 75c | 95.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 68c | 86.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 86.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 83.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 33c | 81.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 28c | 76.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 21c | 58.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…3480backed Yes | 21c | 57.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 57.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 54.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 24c | 53.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 50.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 70c | 49.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 48.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 45.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked No | 69c | 43.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 72c | 41.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 39.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 33c | 38.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 79c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 78c | 34.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 70c | 28.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 28.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 57c | 23.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 22.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 77c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 78c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 80c | 12.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…b51fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.