Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e8508bec2aad5f1f8949055c2a54af0b053bbb04d78716efd2fdb9b8c03c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 0c | 27,837$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 11c | 1,961$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.13 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 3c | 1,424$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 20c | 864.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.38 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 5c | 756.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.68 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 8c | 616.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 12c | 484.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 19c | 445.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.35 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 411.14$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 402.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 63c | 284.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 6c | 255.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 7c | 240.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.49 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 18c | 235.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 140.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 133.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 46c | 125.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 11c | 119.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 116$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 22c | 95.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 83.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 67.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 79c | 57.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 55.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 19.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.