Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1af1504ad1f44d6662a78b3fffef86eb52ca2bac4725fc636bed7233394603c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 11c | 1,058$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 621.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 20c | 612.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 5c | 550.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 444.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 19c | 322.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…c825backed Yes | 27c | 209.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 8c | 198.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 73c | 138.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 14c | 119.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 119.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 26c | 108.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 17c | 108.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 30c | 103.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 17c | 93.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 24c | 88.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6a…4db4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 74c | 82.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 32c | 80.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 72.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 28c | 71.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…d3cbbacked No | 68c | 70.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 68.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 64c | 65.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 59.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…917abacked No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 21c | 55.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…7d24backed Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 72c | 50.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 50.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…813ebacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 45.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 26c | 44.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes | 48c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 32c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 38.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 69c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 77c | 35.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 73c | 34.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 34.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…7ab7backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…17b3backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 41c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 74c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 25.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 74c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 20.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 76c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 15.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.