Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18582ec7e70c1b99fd9e6a46e0e705b125d23eae0b98aef38c0f176d4ff1930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 8c | 518.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 5c | 394.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 378.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 20c | 341.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 79c | 253.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 241$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 184.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 63c | 184.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 153.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 46c | 148.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 35c | 139.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 49c | 133.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 133.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 127.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 127$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 126.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 120.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 115.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 44c | 111.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 59c | 110.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 102.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 49c | 100.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 53c | 100.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 45c | 100.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 49c | 100.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 50c | 97.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 87.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 19c | 85.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 82.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 51c | 76.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 69.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 54c | 61.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 55.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 57c | 52.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 51.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 39c | 50.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 47.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 57c | 46.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 47c | 45.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 45.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…0a12backed Yes | 56c | 44.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 53c | 43.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 42.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 60c | 41.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed Yes | 45c | 36.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 34.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes | 58c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 45c | 30.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 30.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 29.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 28.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 45c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 27.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 44c | 26.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 49c | 24.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 51c | 23.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 45c | 23.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 56c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 61c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 56c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 63c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.