Europa Conference League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840924795e185773d92462d87184c941f883e334ff8af5b96adbb996e2c34e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 80c | 2,023$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.57 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 1,367$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.56 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 1,090$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.41 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 20c | 1,006$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 854.71$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.85 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 75c | 591.4$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 576.94$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.71 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 77c | 449.74$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.3 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 75c | 279.92$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 23c | 276.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.57 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbe…ccebbacked Over | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Under | 69c | 142$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 23c | 141.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 100.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 77c | 99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 76c | 72.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Under | 67c | 57.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 78c | 25.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 76c | 18.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Under | 80c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 4.5this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: KKS Lech Poznań 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.