Europa Conference League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4caf7070db5e616d791e080cdf56210505043ca0a6fff90490cf73d223eb89bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 12c | 2,192$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.25 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 1,363$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.33 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,112$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 44c | 586.05$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 563.76$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.98 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 37c | 457.59$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 456.5$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38bd…b8f3backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 40c | 208.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 60c | 153.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 57c | 141.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Under | 44c | 136.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 41c | 123.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 54c | 45.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30f…ab88backed Under | 48c | 41.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 58c | 39.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 44c | 33.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 60c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: KKS Lech Poznań 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 4.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.