Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb1cc46877377173acb02d904f54bfc7da2133304b7d8e21dea7610424efb2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KKS Lech Poznańof KKS Lech Poznań, FC Thun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed KKS Lech Poznań | 52c | 4,822$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.64 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed FC Thun | 58c | 3,501$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Thun | 44c | 2,283$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Thun | 57c | 1,124$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.94 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 1,047$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed KKS Lech Poznań | 43c | 1,029$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.48 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Thun | 54c | 1,028$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.43 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed FC Thun | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed KKS Lech Poznań | 46c | 557$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 43c | 373.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.14 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked FC Thun | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Thun | 41c | 356.12$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked FC Thun | 6c | 330.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 297$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 297$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed KKS Lech Poznań | 44c | 283.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.86 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked FC Thun | 44c | 268.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed FC Thun | 57c | 227.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FC Thun | 55c | 220.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed KKS Lech Poznań | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed KKS Lech Poznań | 43c | 180.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed KKS Lech Poznań | 56c | 166.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked KKS Lech Poznań | 56c | 79.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed KKS Lech Poznań | 46c | 76.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed FC Thun | 44c | 71.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 68.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed FC Thun | 44c | 66.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked FC Thun | 58c | 66.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 45c | 62.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed FC Thun | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed KKS Lech Poznań | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed KKS Lech Poznań | 44c | 39.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed KKS Lech Poznań | 44c | 37.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Thun | 60c | 35.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked FC Thun | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed KKS Lech Poznań | 44c | 28.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed FC Thun | 44c | 27.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 44c | 27.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed KKS Lech Poznań | 42c | 26.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed FC Thun | 59c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed FC Thun | 45c | 24.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed FC Thun | 60c | 23.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 46c | 21.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked KKS Lech Poznań | 69c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed FC Thun | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked KKS Lech Poznań | 58c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)this page
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: KKS Lech Poznań 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: KKS Lech Poznań O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 0.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 1.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 2.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 4.5Over won
- KKS Lech Poznań vs. FC Thun: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.